Small margins could decide tight Ashes tussle

Although Australia start as favourites, expect a tight Ashes series as both teams line up with obvious flaws in their armouries. 

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And so, the Ashes are again upon us. Four years have flown by since Mitchell Johnson ripped through the visiting Englishmen like a knife through butter as the hosts recorded their second 5-0 whitewash in three home Ashes encounters.

This time around Johnson will be watching on his couch at home – two years into International retirement – However, for England other threats remain. None more so that Johnson’s predecessor, Mitchell Starc.

Starc has started the Sheffield Shield season in red hot form. His figures – 2-46, 8-73, 4-56, 3-41 – suggest that he’s at the top of his game and with two hat-tricks in his previous match against Western Australia, there could be plenty of sleepless nights in the England camp.

With that being said, this could be a much closer Ashes tussle than most had previously expected. For there are obvious weaknesses in each side heading into the series opener in Brisbane on Thursday.

Australia, although boasting a fine and well balanced bowling unit, have deep concerns over their middle-order batting composition. Despite the heroics of Johnson four years ago, it was the continuous late-order bailing out by wicketkeeper Brad Haddin which helped Australia regain the urn. Haddin’s 493 runs were second only to David Warner in the series as he regularly dispirited the English when they’d often broken the back of the Aussie batting.

This time around it’s the contentious recalling of 32-year-old gloveman Tim Paine that has led to several questions being asked down under. Paine, who last played Test cricket over seven years ago, has kept wicket for Tasmania only three times in the past two years after a serious finger injury and hasn’t made a first-class century since 2006. Averaging just 20.40 in his last two years of first-class cricket, his recall has come hugely out of the blue despite the continuing failures of previous incumbents Peter Nevill and Matthew Wade.

At number six, Shaun Marsh’s inclusion had led to more contention. Marsh has been chosen ahead of Glenn Maxwell due to his recent form and experience according to head selector Trevor Hohns. His inclusion at number six means that Australia will go into the first Test with just four bowlers in Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon.

Instead of including an allrounder at number six they’ll be banking on by selecting inform batsmen Marsh and Cameron Bancroft to compliment Warner, Steven Smith, Usman Khawaja and Peter Handscomb they’ll score enough runs to allow the three quicks plenty of time to rest.

And the three quicks will certainly need enough rest. Starc has played only two first-class matches since being diagnosed with a foot stress injury in March, while Hazlewood injured a side during the most recent Test series in Bangladesh and has played just once since. Cummins, meanwhile, has a studied history of breakdowns since making his debut six years ago.

Keeping the trio fit and firing for five successive Tests remains key to Australia’s chances, especially as immediate backup options James Pattinson and Nathan Coulter-Nile have already been ruled out of contention leaving Jackson Bird and Chadd Sayers as the next in line.

England have could have worries in the bowling department too. Their over reliance on James Anderson and Stuart Broad is undeniable. If either man or Chris Woakes were to succumb to injury early in the series then it could leave them ruthlessly exposed.

Without the all round qualities of Ben Stokes, and also missing the unfit trio Mark Wood, Steven Finn and Toby Roland-Jones, they are left to decide between the undercooked Jake Ball or the untried Craig Overton for the fourth seamers role. Beyond that the reserves are even more raw with George Garton and Tom Curren providing the initial backup options.

This Ashes campaign could well be decided by the fitness of either side’s main quick bowlers and the effectiveness of their reserves.

While the Australian’s have experienced recent batting woes in the middle order, the English have struggled to find the right formula at the top of theirs. Their over reliance on Alastair Cook and Joe Root has been well documented in recent years and they still find themselves unsettled at positions two, three and five.

Both opener Mark Stoneman and number five Dawid Malan found form with centuries in the final warm-up fixture in Townsville – albeit against weak opposition bowlers and on a flat wicket. Stoneman, with plenty of experience playing Grade cricket, should fair well as his game is well suited to the fast Australian wickets. Malan, like number three James Vince, could well be a lottery.

For England to have any chance in the series they must look to post gigantic first-innings totals much like they did when they won down under in 2010/11. On that occasion they had massive contributions from Cook, Ian Bell, Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen, while Andrew Strauss and Matt Prior also chipped in with valuable contributions.

Ashes campaigns can often end and define careers. The 2013/14 Ashes whitewash effectively saw the end of a generation of successful England players. Longtime stalwarts Pietersen, Prior, Graeme Swann, Tim Bresnan, Monty Panesar and Jonathan Trott either retired or were faded out after the series.

Likewise, Australia’s 3-2 series defeat in England in 2015 saw the back of Haddin, Shane Watson, Ryan Harris, Chris Rogers and captain Michael Clarke.

But with departures also comes new beginnings. Both current skippers Smith and Root had career lightbulb moments during the series four years ago. Smith regularly claims his hundred in Perth was the catalyst to his successful upturn in form that saw him captain the side just twelve months later and eventually become the best Test batsman in the world.

For Root, it was his dropping for the Sydney Test that held him in good stead when he later forced his way back into the side. His return against Sri Lanka in 2014 was the beginning of a run that has seen him become England’s premier batsman and now captain marvel.

How the pair cope with the bat and in the field will be crucial to how the series unfolds later this week.

Look out for:

Moeen Ali – England

After missing the first two warm-up matches with a side injury, Moeen is now deemed to be fit and ready to go after getting through 48 overs unscathed in Townsville last week.

With Stokes still unavailable due to an ongoing Police investigation, Moeen’s importance to the side has never been higher. It’s likely that he will move up a place to number seven in the batting lineup in Stokes’ absence and his late order hitting will be key to England’s chances of posting big totals.

His bowling will be equally important to the cause. With Australia readily renowned as a graveyard for offspinners over the years, Moeen will need to offer his captain control at important junctures of the match as Root will look to rotate his quicks.

If he can pray on the mind’s of Australia’s attacking batsmen – who regularly underestimated him during the 2015 Ashes – then he can again enjoy success.

Pat Cummins – Australia

Cummins could be forgiven for believing he may never play a home Test match let alone an Ashes series.

Yet, he’s now nailed on to join his New South Wales bowling teammates at the Gabba on Thursday morning as a key component in Australia’s plan to regain the little urn.

Still only 24-years-old, injuries have ravaged his young career to date. Since making his debut at the tender age of 18 six years ago, Cummins has succumbed to a series of stress injuries to the back and has, until this year, been unable to string together any meaningful cricket.

At his best he’s capable of bowling 90mph plus and swinging the ball both ways, however after such a checkered injury history will his fitness hold up to the rigours of a five-Test Ashes campaign?

Australia capitulates to swing and seam, again.

The Investec Ashes 2015

If spin won’t get them then swing and seam surely will.

The Australian total of 136 all out on the first day of the third Ashes Test reads all too familiar for this side on their travels in the recent past. Make no mistake about it, this is no aberration for Australia, they have been notoriously bad tourists for a long time now.

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Adam Voges is caught behind trying to leave a James Anderson delivery as Australia’s recent woes against swing and seam bowling continued at Edgbaston.

Too many times their top order batting has collapsed in the face of decent spin or swing bowling – on many occasions they have been bailed out by their lower order, but not on this occasion as even though their final three batsmen all made double figures (the same total the top eight managed) they look sure to surrender the advantage they gained in the series with a thumping victory at Lords ten days previous.

If it not for Chris Rogers, who just a few days ago looked uncertain to even play in this match, then they would have struggled to have even past three figures – all on a pitch that had Michael Clarke grinning with glee upon winning the toss at 10:30 this morning.

It was hardly a surprise that Rogers was the most accustomed batsman in trying but not treacherous conditions as James Anderson and co made use of the overcast conditions to send the Australians back to the shed almost quicker than their teammates could open their kit bags.

Rogers, almost certainly due to retire at the conclusion of this series, is the only Australian batsman who looks comfortable when the ball is seaming and swinging like it did in Birmingham today. Part of this is of course because he has enjoyed over a decade of service in County cricket, where he has represented Derbyshire, Northants, Leicestershire and Middlesex – scoring over 15,000 first-class runs in due course. But another way in which Rogers has succeeded is that he has been particularly strong at waiting for the ball to come to him as much as possible and playing it as late as he can – many of his teammates should take notice.

David Warner received a good one first up from Anderson, a ball that nipped back to trap him in front before Steven Smith, fresh off a double hundred at Lords, played too aggressively at one from the returning Steven Finn that left him a touch to be caught in the slips. One soon became two for Finn as he yorked the horribly out of form Clarke with a delivery that he seemed slow to pick up.

As the rain came and went, Australia post-lunch batting was a precession of ordinary shot play on a pitch that was no minefield. Adam Voges nicked off after trying to leave a ball from Anderson and the same man soon picked up Mitchell Marsh, playing an expansive drive to one he should have left to be out for nought.

Peter Nevill, chosen ahead of the more experienced Brad Haddin for this encounter, left one he should have played only to see his off stump knocked back and Anderson was soon celebrating his five-for with the wicket of Mitchell Johnson, who was caught low down in the gully. Anderson’s 6-47 were his best figures against Australia.

When Stuart Broad returned to finally nail Rogers for 52 with a straight one that he seemed to completely miss, the damage was well and truly done, Australia will have their work cut out to not find themselves 2-1 down with two to play.

Much was made of England’s inability to leave the ball well while they were being rolled over for just 103 in their second innings at Lords, and much of the same can be directed towards their Australian counterparts. England lasted just 37 overs in that innings. Here Australia lasted two balls less than that.

It’s not the first time the Australian batting has collapsed away from home to either quality pace or spin. Times such as the 47 all out at Cape Town in 2011 spring to mind as does the 128 they managed against England at Lords in 2013 from which they never recovered from in the series as they lost their third successive away Ashes campaign. The same could be said of their capitulation here – a potential series turner perhaps.

In the grand scheme of things this latest setback should not be a surprise to those who follow Australian cricket closely. Since they won a two-Test series in New Zealand in early 2010, they have only won back-to-back Test matches once on the road, and that once came in the West Indies last month against a poor side ranked eighth in the world.

Since, they have struggled against the wobbling ball in England and South Africa and against the spinning ball on their two previous tours to the subcontinent, in India 2013 and the UAE last year.

This is not a great batting outfit when taken out of their own conditions. Rogers has struggled hugely in spinning conditions, whilst the likes of Warner, Smith and Shane Watson have all previously struggled against the swinging ball, when you also throw in that Voges, Mitchell Marsh and Nevill are fresh to Test cricket and Clarke is ridiculously out of form then it doesn’t read for pretty reading. If Clarke continues to struggle in this series, it’s not inconceivable that it could be his last – certainly as captain and maybe even as player.

Anderson claimed his best figures against Australia as the tourists were routed for just 136.
Anderson claims his best figures against Australia as the tourists were routed for just 136.

But it’s hard to find alternatives at this stage. Shaun Marsh has also previously struggled against the new swinging ball and is next in line among the batsman on this tour whilst Joe Burns, another who has debuted in Test cricket recently, has just finished a stint with Middlesex, in English conditions without a whole heap of success. The end line of it is that there just isn’t enough quality young batsmen knocking on the door in Australia who are accustomed at playing the swinging ball – hence the reason that 37-year-old Rogers and 35-year-old Voges are still donning the baggy green this series.

For England, they finally got the pitch they have been crying out for since the series began in Cardiff – one with something in it for their fast bowlers. This pitch had both more grass and pace in it than the previous two offerings at Cardiff and Lords. In a nutshell it was tailor made for Anderson.

After their 169-run defeat at Cardiff, Australian coach Darren Lehmann was suggesting if not moaning about the lack of pace in the wicket produced in south Wales, at Lords a similar wicket was rolled out with the Australian’s coaxing far more out of it than their English counterparts.

On that occasion Johnson, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazelwood, (all generally quicker bowlers than any of the English), used the conditions far better to their advantage and suggestions in the England camp were that they needed to make better use of their home comforts and start producing English wickets to aid the likes of Anderson and Broad.

Low and behold it was an English wicket and standard English cloud cover at Edgbaston, to their detriment the Australian’s played it the way they have been playing on seamer-friendly wickets far too often on their recent travels – very badly. Advantage England.